In the dying minutes, Norm Smith Jason Johannieson could’ve given away a 50m penalty, but it wasn’t paid. But what if it was? Would Tom Scully kick a goal? How would the rest of the game play out?
I know there are many possibilities of how this played out, but we are going to go with a couple of simple ways so it doesn’t get too complex and confusing.
So now we start off the with the mark. Tom Scully took a clean grab and went back looking for someone to kick to. In that time Jason Johannisen ran only about ONE METER away from Scully. This year umpires made it clear that it is now a TEN METER rule, meaning standing, or in this case running, through that protected area is a 50m penalty. And maybe if you’re thinking the umpire, somehow forgot about the new rule, well still last year it was 5 METERS! Johannisen ran about a METER close, let alone 5 or even TEN. So now we come to the question. WHAT IF TOM SCULLY WAS PAID THAT 50m PENALTY?
Now we have many possibilities here. Before we get any further I would just like to add that after this, I decided that the remainder of the game, stays the same. So back to what happens now. Does Scully back himself from about 40-50 meters out? Or does he center it in for Jeremy Cameron? As I mentioned earlier I am going to keep this as simple as possible, so passing it Cameron will cause a pack and eventually a ball-up. So we won’t know things like, ‘do the Bulldogs clear it?’ ‘Do the Giants get a goal after the ball-up?’ ‘And what if the dogs clear it, but GWS regain possession?’ So that will just get confusing and complex.
We now suppose that Scully backs himself. And now we come two main points. Does he kick the goal or get a behind? Now as I said earlier, the game will stay the same after whatever happens here. So if in fact he misses for a minor score or even on the full, the Dogs will win. But now if he kicks the GOAL though…
So let’s say he backs himself and kicks true. We now have the last 1:20 to see everything else unfold. But now you think: ‘Dickson won’t have the last shot after the siren now, will he, so the Giants win by 1 point!’ No, wrong. Dickson takes the mark with around 30 seconds left. We just took off 30 seconds so he pretty much marks on the siren or just before. So he still has his shot. If he kicks the goal, the Western Bulldogs make the Grand Final and will win, just like normal. But as we said, the remainder of the game is the same. Now that he misses… we have a tie…
So what happens now? Well, the AFL have now introduced overtime, so we play that. This is incredibly hard to predict as there is no AFL game simulator. But if the Bulldogs win we have what actually happened. Dogs by 22 points, as we said with Dickson’s kick on the siren. But if the Giants win in overtime we have an all-Sydney Grand Final.
Who would win?
After checking the form their teams were in and win-loss records at the MCG and against each other I came to a conclusion.
The Sydney Swans have been pretty inconsistent in close games this year, but if they had a comfortable lead – over a goal let’s suspect – I think they could win. So I predicted the Sydney Swans to beat the Greater Western Sydney Giants by 10 points. And that, was what would’ve happened if Tom Scully was paid a 50m penalty. What a difference it would’ve made to the whole game, finals series even.